Sony Dwi Kuncoro (@3.0) vs Kodai Naraoka (@1.33)
11-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Kodai Naraoka will win

Sony Dwi Kuncoro – Kodai Naraoka Match Prediction | 11-09-2019 09:40

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If we only consider the Superseries, mens doubles has had exactly two teen winners Tan Boon Heong and Lee Yong Dae and they both won with veteran partners. In fact, Lee is also one of only two teenaged boys to title in mixed doubles at the Superseries level, but the other one, Zheng Siwei, earned his first 3 Superseries titles with fellow 19-year-old Chen Qingchen. Although mens singles has the lowest number of teen champions, we cant ignore the fact that it is in both singles and doubles that boy winners are less common.

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Players like LCW and LD at their old age wont stand a chance against younger players, and we could observe that in fact there were very few players still active at the age of more than 35 years. Back then, when the 15 point system (no rally point!), it required an incredible physical endurance. IMHO, in the 21 rally point system, skill and experience play a more important role in the game. Its strange that you did not take into account the different scoring system.

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Do you think it could be that the womens singles went to rally point but simultaneously got longer matches, with games going from 11 to 21 rather than from 15 to 21? I think it is logical to assume this would affect singles more than doubles but do you have a theory as to why this would affect mens singles in particular, and not womens singles? Thats a good point and you are by no means the only one who has suggested this as a factor.

On the other hand, if we keep going further back into the past, we do find more. Its a little difficult to track down every historical instance but 10 years before Chen and Hidayat, the Hong Kong and China Opens were won by teenagers Wu Wenkai and Ardy Wiranata respectively. Earlier in the 80s, Icuk Sugiarto and Zhao Jianhua had titled at the biggest events before age 20, too. Its not an annual thing, but then again, a 14-year gap seems excessive.

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Once you bring Lee Chong Wei (pictured left, with Lin Dan), Peter Gade, and Lee Hyun Il into it, it starts to look like a star-kissed generation. Indeed, it might have been a similar cohort of talent in the 90s that denied that decades teenagers early success, with Allan Budi Kusuma, Joko Suprianto, Ardy Wiranata, Poul-Erik Hoyer, Thomas Stuer-Lauridsen, Hermawan Susanto, Dong Jiong, Sun Jun, Arbi Heryanto, and Fung Permadi dividing the major titles among them.