Arsenal (@1.4) vs Aston Villa (@7.5)
23-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Arsenal will win

Arsenal – Aston Villa Match Prediction | 23-09-2019 11:30

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The Villans are tough to beat at home, but they are not capable of matching top-table sides on the road. Unai Emerys troops are likely to stick to their attacking style of play against the newcomers and seeing that they are a real force to be reckoned with at home, we believe that there is a big value in betting on the capital club. In their last meeting at Emirates Stadium Arsenal recorded a 4-0 win over Aston Villa.

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction & Match Preview

In the scatter graph above, produced by the excellent Experimental361, we can see that Aston Villa head the graph and fall into the competent but busy category when defensive effectiveness is highlighted. This shows that Aston Villa, more than most teams, are capable of absorbing shots. Villa are giving away around 18 shots a game, but are capable of accepting 15 before a goal is scored. A well-organised defence like Villas is able to restrict shooting space in the box and act on reflex, there is plenty of reason to have faith in that. Teams arent simply being wasteful against the Villa either - Tyrone Mings is the league leader in shots blocked per 90 minutes and Tom Heaton in goal is a superb shot-stopper.

Arsenal is listed as a favorite here, as they should be. They have won against Eintracht Frankfurt 3:0 which is a perfect reminder for everyone of how good Arsenal can be. They only have 8 points from 5 games. Currently they are 7 points behind the league leaders, Liverpool. They are a strong team with many goal-scoring options and a solid tradition behind them. Besides that, their Premier League season didnt start well.

They were stunned, with a 2:1 home loss to Bournemouth and have not recovered since. That was not a start they have wished for. Aston Villa will be fighting hard to avoid being relegated this season. They will be missing Chester and Kodjia in this game. Aston VIlla will try to surprise here and somehow avoid third defeat early in the season.

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Aston Villa will be very wary of this, especially since they have conceded 4 goals in their 2 Premier League away days since their promotion. After 5 games they find themselves on 4 points, only outside the drop zone on goal difference. Overall, its been a pretty subdued start for The Villains, with their heavy summer investment yet to yield any real returns.

Wesley will start up top and will be expected to lead the press. His return will be a small blessing to a Villa side in need of performances from the wing. Villas attack will need galvanising and the returning Trezeguet should assist with that. The Egyptian is second to Wesley in xG, and offers a more direct threat than Jota or Ahmed Elmohamady.

Arsenal cannot do this, and last weeks game is the highlight of that. Villas main goal will be taking advantage of an Arsenal side that tries to be defensive without having any interest at all in being defensive. Simply deploying a low-block doesnt make a team defensive, controlling a game well, does. Holding onto the ball, playing out from the back, avoiding errors - these are the hallmarks of a defensive team in 2019.

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At all. The name Arsenal should strike fear into Villa fans worldwide. In the new modern era of football (marked at about 2015), Villa havent been able to question Arsenal. Youll have to recall Gabby Agbonlahor, Antonio Luna, Olof Mellberg and more to consider the last time Villa threatened Arsenal. Simply put, Aston Villa havent enjoyed a good match against the north Londoners in a long while.

The Hornets swarmed, the box was overloaded, Cleverley scored, and Watford ruined Emerys plan - which had worked up until this point. Arsenal could still play it short, and didnt have to pass it within the box under a press, but they passed it within the box, limited the passing range for the defender and succumbed to pressure.

This is a club in transition, and from the outside it may look a dream. Where there have been cup finals, there have been ruthless thrashings. The internal workings of that dream though, are creepy, unsettling and no fun at all. Where philosophy existed, relentless tinkering and gameplans fill the void. Arsenal lack identity - and they arent able to chase the success craved so desperately by an outspoken and relentless fanbase.